Nick SussNashville Tennessean
It's hard to ignore the trend.
Tennessee Titans general manager Ran Carthon has visited four campuses to scout pro days in advance of the NFL Draft: Ohio State, Alabama, Kentucky and Florida. Between those four schools, Carthon got a first-hand glimpse at 31 of ESPN's top 200 prospects. But four particularly stand out. Alabama's Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Kentucky's Will Levis and Florida's Anthony Richardson are the top four quarterback prospects in the class, all of which are expected to be picked in the top 10 on April 27.
The Titans own the No. 11 pick, putting them right on the fringe of being in range to snag a franchise quarterback.
Here's what the pro day visits reveal about the Titans' draft plans, and what they need to do to end up in position to select a quarterback.
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QB RUMORS: As Lamar Jackson rumors swirl, what are Tennessee Titans' realistic quarterback options?
What are the odds of the Titans picking a quarterback?
It isn't common for a first-year general manager to marry himself to a first-round quarterback. There are 27 current NFL GMs who have overseen at least one NFL Draft. Only two of those 27 used their first ever selection on a quarterback. Washington Commanders GM Martin Mayhew used the first pick in 2009 on Matthew Stafford when he was with the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys owner/GM Jerry Jones used his initial selection on Pro Football Hall of Fame member Troy Aikman in 1989.
Since 2000, only nine GMs in their first year with a team have used a first-round pick on a quarterback. Only two of those GMs traded up to pick a quarterback: Tampa Bay's Mark Dominik, who moved up to draft Josh Freeman in 2009, and Cleveland's Ray Farmer, who traded up in the 2014 first round to select Johnny Manziel.
Freeman only lasted four years with the Bucs; Dominik was fired after five. The Browns parted ways with both Manziel and Farmer after two seasons.
According to the consensus big board, which compiles player rankings from more than 100 sources, all four of the quarterbacks Carthon visited are top 10 prospects. In order to pick Young, Stroud, Levis or Richardson, the Titans will almost certainly have to trade up.
So, would the Titans actually pick a quarterback?
Carthon says he wants to keep his options open. He's never led a draft before, so it's hard to know how seriously he takes these visits and how much is subterfuge.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is under contract for one more season. The Titans could move on from Tannehill and save $27 million against the salary cap after June 1, or they could keep Tannehill around as a bridge starter, letting a younger player gain experience from the bench for a year.
They also have Malik Willis who they used a third-round pick on last April. Willis is just as logical an option to try as a developmental project as Levis or Richardson, but with less commitment attached to him than a first rounder because of his contract and the fact that Carthon didn't draft him.
There are arguments to be made in either direction, but it's easier to argue for why the Titans would pick a quarterback than why they wouldn't.
What would the Titans have to give up?
The Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans are all but locks to pick quarterbacks No. 1 and No. 2 overall. The Indianapolis Colts (No. 4), Seattle Seahawks (No. 5), Detroit Lions (No. 6), Las Vegas Raiders (No. 7) and Atlanta Falcons (No. 8) all could be involved in the quarterback market too. The Titans will have to give up a lot to even be in position to get their choice, likely at least two first-round picks and a player or two like Tannehill, Derrick Henry or Jeffery Simmons.
That's a lot to move up as many as nine spots, but that's the going rate in a quarterback-driven league.
Do these pro day visits prove anything?
At least 10 GMs were spotted at Alabama's and Ohio State's pro days. More than 80 scouts, coaches and GMs were in Gainesville for Florida's pro day. Teams cast wide nets in draft season; if every pro day visit equaled a guaranteed draft pick, every team would be picking 100 players a year.
The Titans still have nearly a month to set up visits with prospects regardless of position. Pro days aren't the end of draft scouting season and it's foolish to think the Titans will only consider drafting players who they saw at a pro day.
The only thing Carthon is proving with these visits is he values face-time with prospects. He'll get to keep doing that until the draft is underway, at which points he'll unfurl his first draft strategy.
Beyond that, it's hard to say anything definitive about Carthon's plan other than he's content to let other teams know he's looking at quarterbacks so long as he sees what he wants to see.
Nick Suss is the Titans beat writer for The Tennessean. Contact Nick at nsuss@gannett.com. Follow Nick on Twitter @nicksuss.
